From January to October this year, the national agricultural machinery company above the planning has completed the cumulative sale of 278.08 billion yuan, an increase of 19.17%. At the same time, the tractor work of 14 key production companies calculated by the tractor branch of the Agricultural Machinery Industry Association company sales of large and medium-sized tractors were 274,400 units, down 4.31% year-on-year. During this period, the cumulative sales volume of 25 ~ 70 Mli wheels was 172,087 units, a decrease of 3.1% year-on-year; The cumulative sales volume of large wheels with more than 70 horsepower was 986,601 units, down 0.88% year-on-year; The sales volume of small wheeltrailers was 230,174 units, which was 6.57% lower than the same period last year.

Since this year, the situation of China's tractor market has decreased year-on-year, which is contrary to the fundamental trend of insisting on a high increase in previous years. Looking at the tractor market in the first 10 months, the following eight characteristics appeared:

First, the subsidy policy about the market situation, tractor sales "Waterloo"

Since this year, in order to change and improve the agricultural machinery purchase subsidy criteria, strengthen the supervision of shopping malls and plug the outstanding hope of subsidy operation gaps, the competent departments of agricultural machinery at all levels can be said to have spent much effort and paid great efforts. The Ministry of Agriculture has discussed and issued the new "2012 Agricultural machinery purchase subsidy Implementation Guidance Opinions", which clearly put forward the reform ideas of selecting a small number of agricultural machinery items that meet the conditions to meet the needs of all farmers in the province, implementing the full price purchase of machinery, collecting subsidies after the purchase of machinery by invoice, and transferring the settlement level of subsidy funds to the county. The competent departments of agricultural machinery at all levels are also actively implementing the reform and exploration of the subsidy operation level in some shopping areas. At the same time, all localities have further strengthened the supervision of the implementation of the agricultural subsidy policy, strengthened the supervision and inspection of the operation process of the implementation of subsidies, and especially increased the punishment of illegal operations such as "early operation" and "off-site car purchase". Its scope of planning and the intensity of change are rare in years. It is precisely because of these reasons, directly led to the first half of the agricultural machinery shopping malls, especially tractor shopping malls to sell business "Waterloo". Its negative impact on the sale of tractor shopping malls mainly has the following aspects:

First, the implementation of subsidies in many provinces and cities is widely delayed, which directly leads to the lag in the launch of subsidized shopping malls. After the New Year to the beginning of the "summer" this period is the peak season for the sale of agricultural machinery, agricultural machinery companies every year about 60% of the sale of income will be concentrated in these months. Once this season is missed, the purchasing intention of farm users will be changed, and most users will be compared to the next year's purchase, and even have the ability to revoke the original purchase motivation. In recent years, although the central finance issued the first batch of subsidy funds to the provinces and autonomous regions as early as a year ago, the actual operation plan of the subsidies in the provinces and regions is always slow, and the time is getting later year by year. Last year, a large area of the country launched subsidies at the end of April, this year is delayed until mid-May to start continuous launch, most regions have now missed the first half of the sale season.

Second, the frequency and intensity of change are too large, and the supporting services of some local departments are not in place. For example, some areas implement the pilot of subsidies after purchasing machines, handling some of the problems of whether users can smoothly get subsidies after purchasing did not make a positive answer, farmers do not dare to buy machines because they have no foundation in their hearts; The implementation of the full price purchase pilot area, so that users rated more than 30% of the machine price of the fund, many buyers because they can not take so much money at a time and have to abandon the purchase of the machine; The operation authority of the subsidy funds is delegated to the towns and cities below the county level, the responsibility and liveliness of the cadres and workers in the management departments above the county are hurt, and the absence of a single link is directly or directly hindering the purchase of machinery by farmers.

Third, most of the local agricultural machinery authorities in order to adjust the agricultural production format and speed up the development of corn mechanization harvest, rice mechanization and other thin links and characteristics of agriculture, the main points of subsidy funds to the corn harvester, rice transplanter, rice harvester, deep soiling machine and other products skewered, and relatively thinned the tractor subsidy goal. This appearance is appropriately severe in some areas, in the first half of the subsidy implementation at the beginning of the fundamental not to compensate tractors, many areas are in the late implementation of subsidies, funds after the balance of the tractor subsidies.

Fourth, local authorities further strengthened the investigation of illegal operations such as "early operation" and "off-site purchase", resulting in the disappearance of such "so-called" violations in the first half of this year. Regardless of whether these practices occupy the jurisprudence, but it does directly lead to the "shrinkage" of tractor market sales data.

Always, in the first half of this year, the tractor market suddenly changed from hot to cold, and even appeared a rare negative increase situation since the implementation of the purchase subsidy in 2004, although the reasons are many, but the above reason is the primary reason.

Second, the rigidity needs to be slightly tired, and the user's consumption action returns to rationality

First, shopping malls are slightly lacking in purchasing ability. Although last year's national agriculture achieved a surplus, the total grain output was happy to "eight consecutive increases", but because of the rising cost of agricultural production materials, agricultural operation costs remain high, coupled with the differences in the detailed production environment of various regions and the imbalance of the degree of development, For example, farmers in Xinjiang hesitate to sell the appearance because of the low purchase price of cotton, and farmers in Northeast China hoard corn, wheat, rice and other food products in order to sell at a good price, which directly leads to the situation that the actual income of farmers does not advance due to the abundance of the current period.

Second, the annual return of the owner of the machine is reduced, and the enthusiasm of farmers to buy the machine is weakened. The industry has done a lot of shopping mall research and analysis before and reached such a conclusion that the critical value of the return period that farmers with agricultural machinery operations and services can afford is 3 years. That is to say, if a new agricultural machinery is purchased within three years, the vast majority of farmers will abandon the purchase. From our shopping mall research in the past few months to grasp the situation, because of the high increase in shopping mall sales in these years, the tractor shopping mall has been close to full, and the recovery period of tractor users around the country is even around 2.5 years, during which, about 70% of the users have a return period between 2.3-2.7 years, which is now very close to the critical point.

Third, the target of agricultural machinery subsidies in most regions of the country is now relatively abundant, and farmers are no longer worried about competing for less than the target of purchasing machinery, and the "lack of effect" of the early end of potential procurement power caused by the shortage of subsidy targets in previous years is no longer a landscape.

It is based on the above reasons that the purchase of machinery by farmers has now begun to gradually return to rationality from the original obedient "buying" of "getting the subsidy target" regardless of whether it is really needed, and the indifferent actions such as forced purchase and crowd purchase. Nowadays, farmers buy machines only when they need to buy, according to the need to purchase, when buying machines, they can not only carefully select their favorite brands, but also bargain with sellers, which fundamentally ends the purchase of machines in accordance with the farmers' own hopes.

Third, the upward trend of the power segment is prominent, and the need for the aggregate effect is emerging

(1) According to the data of 30 tractor key companies supplied by the China Agricultural Machinery Industry Association, the total sales volume of wheeled tractors in China from January to August this year was 504,576 units, down 5.35% year-on-year. During the period: sales of small tractors 230,174 units, 16,182 units less than the same period last year, a decrease of 6.57 percentage points; The sales volume of 25-70 Mli wheel trailers was 175,742 units, down 4.66% year-on-year; The sales volume of large wheeltrailers over 70 horsepower was 98,660 units, down 3.69% year-on-year. From the table below (figure), it can be seen that from January to August, the small horsepower segment of tractor sales extends upward, and with the gradual increase of the horsepower segment, its downward fluctuation is gradually decreasing, clearly reflecting the fundamental trend of the extension of the power segment required by the shopping mall for tractor products.

(2) According to the analysis of the associated data provided by the Tractor Work Society, in the 30 key companies in the calculation of tractor work, from January to August, the tractor products below 100 horsepower were sold 466,356 units, a year-on-year decrease of 8.4%, and the proportion of the total sales of working tractors was reduced from 95.5% in the first half of the previous year to 92.43%. A year-on-year decrease of 3.07 percentage points; At the same time, more than 100 horsepower large wheel trailers sold 38,220 units, an increase of 14,208 units, an increase of 59.17%, the proportion of total sales in the work also rose from 4.50% in the same period last year to 7.57%. It also proves the fundamental trend of tractor power extension from another perspective. (as shown in table)

Not only that, from the table below we also found an outstanding feature, in more than 100 horsepower large wheel trailers, 100-130 horsepower segment products rising momentum rapidly, from January to August this year, the horsepower segment sales reached 34,442 units, 13,564 units more than the same period last year, an increase of 64.97%; The proportion of large wheeltrailers with more than 100 horsepower also increased from 86.94% to 90.12% in the same period. This situation fully shows that the horsepower segment has now become the backbone model of the large tractor market, and this trend is still further highlighted. Although the increase of heavy products above 160 horsepower is as high as 53.67%, due to its low base, the distribution of shopping malls is limited to some areas such as Northeast China and Xinjiang, and is greatly affected by non-shopping mall factors, so it does not represent the future direction of shopping malls.

Fourth, the concentration of shopping malls has further increased, and the format of industrial development has improved

From the perspective of globalization, the overall development of tractor work in China at that time compared with the world-class work giants, there is still an appropriate large distance, although the company brand is a lot, but the lack of awareness and influence; And in terms of the company's planning and product level, it is still mostly in the industrial and low-end level of the world's shopping malls. In terms of domestic shopping malls, although the work entry threshold is low, at that time China's tractor production company planning is still small divergence, skills development ability is relatively low, the level of development is mixed, the brand on the market is mixed, homogenization competition is very serious. With the relevant arrangement calculation, at that time, the domestic planning of more than 200 tractor manufacturers, among which, the large and medium-sized tractor brands as many as 80, but most of the lack of independent intellectual property rights and research and development talent, and almost no personal sales network and service talent, sales planning is small, the proportion of shopping malls more than 1%, can only struggle in the market gap. This is inconsistent with our country's position as a "big country of agricultural machinery production" and a "big country of agricultural machinery consumption". But we are also pleased to find that this situation has now begun to change, and is gradually moving toward well-being.

According to the tractor work Society information materials flash, in the first eight months of this year, China Yituo, Foton Rewo, Deere Tianjin, spring wind agricultural machinery and other large tractor work of the top four sales volume of 66,631 units, accounting for 78.92% of the work, an increase of 0.62 percentage points over the same period of last year 78.3%; In the wheel tow, China Yituo, spring wind agricultural machinery, Foton Revo and other top 7 companies sold 148,662 units from January to August, the proportion of working malls was as high as 87.37%, compared with 86.6% in the same period last year, and the proportion of shopping malls increased by nearly 1 percentage point over the same period. It fully reflects the trend of further strengthening of the brand participation degree of China's large and medium-sized shopping malls. There are several main reasons for the above situation:

One is the "catfish effect" brought about by new entrants to the mall. In recent years, China's agricultural machinery shopping malls, which benefit from the national agricultural machinery purchase subsidy policy, have continued to increase at a high level, becoming an important shopping mall with large global planning and vigor, and the outstanding operating environment and broad shopping malls are expected to attract the market from other domestic work industries, capital (such as Anhui Chery) and the world's agricultural machinery giants (such as Agco, Deere, etc.). These new entrants not only carry out planning with their own financial strength, skill resource advantages and high starting point, but also activate the sensitive nerves of traditional brands in domestic shopping malls, and carry out large-scale planning expansion and intrinsic promotion in a new round of shopping malls. For example, Dongfang Hong has speculatively built a number of production and development bases in Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Sichuan and other key areas, and Rewo Heavy Industry has followed suit, successively establishing new factories in Harbin, Xinjiang and other places. The inevitable result of this new round of "arms race-like" expansion of costs will be the agglomeration of industry, and the strong will become stronger.

The second is the support of the national agricultural machinery industry policy. In recent years, the state has carried out a lot of favorable exploration and testing in optimizing the industrial layout and promoting the advancement and promotion of industrial layout, especially the "State Council's Opinion on Promoting the sound and Rapid development of Agricultural Mechanization and agricultural machinery Industry" issued in 2009 clearly proposed to accelerate the process of collectification and intensification. To build an industrial format that fits the national conditions, has reasonable planning, professional cooperation and high degree of convergence, to form an industrial system and industrial cluster with large companies as the leader and small and medium-sized companies matching, and to cultivate agricultural machinery brands with world competition. Governments at all levels have introduced a series of preferential skewiness policies in implementing the "Decision", promoting industrial optimization and adjustment of agricultural machinery industry, and accelerating the agglomeration of agricultural machinery industry, which has effectively pushed forward the asset restructuring, planning expansion and rapid promotion of inductive strength of key agricultural machinery companies.

The third is to benefit from the reform and progress of the agricultural machinery subsidy policy. With the expansion of the national agricultural machinery subsidy fund plan year by year and the increasing progress and improvement of the subsidy policy, the shortage of subsidy funds in most regions of the country has been greatly reduced, and the adjustment and change of the implementation and operation methods of subsidies are increasingly conducive to the strength of well-known brands. Because the regional subsidy funds of most shopping malls are relatively generous, coupled with the new subsidy policy that local authorities at all levels no longer specify subsidy manufacturers and dealers, farmers can choose and buy machines according to their personal wishes within the planning of agricultural machinery implementation conditions, and well-known brands with strong economic strength and guaranteed service are often more easily loved by users.

Five, large and medium-sized drag sales shopping malls quickly moved south, regional format quietly changed

From China's tractor region need to spread analysis, because of regional conditions and agricultural characteristics and other aspects of the reason, the northeast, northwest and winter wheat area is the main battlefield of large and medium-sized tractors in China, over the years, the sales volume of the three regional shopping malls have accounted for more than 70% of the total sales volume of the national shopping malls. Since the beginning of this year, this thundering former history format is quietly changing. From the national agricultural machinery subsidies data, the northeast, northwest and central winter wheat shopping mall sales situation is far behind the national average level. In the meantime, the Northeast mall is in poor condition, down 14.26 percentage points, followed by the Northwest mall, although the total sales are basically the same as the same period of the previous year, but with the national 7.41% average growth is still 6.5 percentage points. As a result, the proportion of the three regional shopping malls in the total sales of the country also fell from 80.68% in the same period of the previous year to 73.71%. In sharp contrast, Southwest, South China and East China, which are also southern shopping malls, have a good performance. In the meantime, sales in the southwest region increased by 83.61% over the same period, and sales in South China and East China increased by 42.88% and 24.97% respectively. The proportion of sales in the three regional shopping malls also climbed to 26.29 percent, up nearly 7 percentage points from the same period last year.

The analysis believes that the main reason for the above situation is the imbalance of agricultural mechanization development in the southern and northern shopping areas of our country. Although at the end of 2011, the level of mechanization of sowing, harvesting and induction of China's main crops has reached 54%, the difference is obvious in the southern and northern regions. In China and some regions in the north of the level of agricultural mechanization has reached more than 80%, while in contrast, the southern region is mostly hilly and mountainous areas, the land is small and scattered, and the mechanization conditions are appropriate and backward, and the mechanization level is far behind the national average level.

Over the years, after continuing high year-on-year increases in mall sales,